Abstract: Degradation of urban forests is a direct form of land degradation leading to human-wild animal interactions and thus increasing the risk of zoonotic disease emergence. As humans degrade urban forest structure and composition, there is likelihood for increasing the risk of zoonotic disease such as COVID-19. This study is aimed at examining the effect of urban forest degradation on vulnerability to declining ecosystem services and consequent zoonotic disease outbreak and incidence in Minna town. The study employed field survey method based on quantitative analysis of 8 indicators of urban forest (structure and composition) degradation; 18 indicators of ecosystem services degradation and 5 indicators of vulnerability to pandemic incidence. Relative Importance Index (RII) and Ecological Risk Index (ERI) were used to analyze the data collected. Findings from the study revealed that virtually all the parameters of structure and composition of urban forest have undergone significant degradation. It was also found that ecosystem services have declined considerably over the 30 years covered. Consequent upon the current status of urban forest ecosystem degradation, ERI was generally found to be high (ranging from 0.383 to 0.764.). The study thus conclude that urban environment in Minna is conducive to host potentially dangerous conditions and pathogens that can trigger or escalate some poor human health conditions. This study provides a structured approach to exploring the interconnectedness between urban forest degradation and increased vulnerability to disease outbreaks. The study hereby recommends urban forest restoration by planting and maintenance of trees in the neighborhoods by households, establishing more green corridors and protecting existing green paces by urban control board.
Key words: Degradation, Ecosystem services, Urban forest, Vulnerability, Zoonotic disease