Abstract: The Sahelian region of Northern Nigeria is characterised by unreliable rainfall regime which is highly variable over different temporal scales. This variability is often evident spells of different durations which usually results in floods and droughts. Assessing how wet and dry spells will evolve in future climate is therefore crucial for addressing agricultural, water resources and environmental challenges. Using daily rainfall simulations from four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the future characteristics of wet and dry spells of different timescales were analysed based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, the wet and dry spells for the mid- and late –century. The characterisations were based on established categorisations. On the whole, the 2-3 days wet and dry spells are projected to be the most frequent, with the highest frequency of the 2-3 days (285 events) for the mid-century under RCP 4.5 expected at Maiduguri and the highest frequency (272 events) for 2-3 days dry spell for the late- century under RCP 8.5 expected at Sokoto. The >20 days wet spell and the >21 days dry spell are projected to be the least frequent with some locations not expected to experience the wet and dry spells of these duration categories. This portends reduced the risk of flood-induced crop failure and agricultural drought. The study recommends taking advantage of the expected suitable agro-climatic conditions to increase the acreage of land under cultivation and combat climate change induced challenges.
Key words: African Easterly Waves, Late Century, Mid-Century, Rainfall, West African Monsoon