SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE PREVALENCE OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS ALONG FULANI SEASONAL MIGRATION ROUTE IN NORTH-WESTERN NIGERIA.

Fada, Abubakar Garba

The pattern of human mobility affects the spread of infectious diseases, particularly tuberculosis (TB), whose transmission is associated with several factors, including consumption of unpasteurised milk. Studies conducted on the role of seasonal migration on disease transmission, such as TB transmission along Fulani seasonal migration routes in Nigeria, have received inadequate attention. This paper, therefore, analyses the spatial pattern of pulmonary TB along Fulani seasonal migration route in North-western Nigeria using secondary data on TB prevalence collected from case registers of 15 each Directly Observed Therapy Short-course (DOTS) centres along (sample) and off (control) the seasonal migration route. A two-tailed Pearson Rank Correlation Analysis was used to examine the relationships between distance of settlements (along and away from route), and TB prevalence on one hand, and population size of settlements on the other at p<=0.05. Distance away from the route was found to have no effect on TB prevalence but distance along the route had. The role of distance is not clearly defined in affecting TB prevalence in the study area and thus there is no direct link between availability of unpasteurized milk, its consumption and the prevalence of TB tuberculosis. Population size of settlements may simply be acting as a confounder. In this light, it was recommended that further studies on other factors such as climate variability and the culture of the people who actually consume unpasteurized milk as their staple food be carried out in order to ascertain the climatic and socio-economic link between TB the disease and lifestyle within the region.

Key words: Directly Observed Therapy Short-course, Fulani Seasonal Migration, Pulmonary Tuberculosis, Spatial Variation, Unpasteurized Milk.