STATE LEVEL INVESTIGATION OF THE INTERPLAY OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC DRIVERS OF CHOLERA RISK IN NIGERIA.

Abdussalam, A.F.* and Sanda, T.D.

Cholera is one of the global infectious diseases, but it’s commonly linked with low latitude and particularly developing countries. In 2010, the highest proportion of cases in Africa was reported by Nigeria. In many areas of the globe, studies have been conducted which explore the relationship between either climate or socioeconomic conditions and cholera. This study explores both of these relationships in Nigeria at individual states level. Multiple linear regressions was used to explore this relationship on an inter-annual scale between cholera cases and deaths, climate and socioeconomic conditions for the 36 states and FCT. The result reveals that in almost all states inter-annual relationships were found between cholera, climate and socioeconomic conditions; the strongest meteorological relationships were largely found in the southern part of the country and the largest contribution from socioeconomic conditions largely in the north. Models with the combination of both climate and socioeconomic variables were found to explain disease variability better in both the Incidence Rate and Case Fatality Rate. As a national average, they explain 52.67% of the inter-annual variability in the IR and 60.29% of the inter-annual variability in the CFR. It is concluded therefore that despite their individual relationships, both climate and socioeconomic variables have a critical role to play in governing inter-annual variability in cholera and both must be included in an effective early warning system. Finally the study establishes that in order the menace of the disease, authorities in charge need to improve the quality of drinking water, healthcare delivery, poverty alleviation, and education. Also, embarking on widespread vaccination campaigns will do well, especially when epidemic of the disease is perceived.

Key words: Cholera, Environmental, Inter-annual Variability, Socioeconomic, Nigeria.