Zaria Geographer Vol. 27, No. 1, 2020 ISSN: 0795-7599     Online ISSN: 2782-7739     Page: 17 - 35
SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA APPROACH FOR ASSESSING COVID-19 SPREAD IN NIGERIA AND LESSONS FOR FUTURE PANDEMIC MANAGEMENT
ADEBAYO, H.O.* AND BADMUS, Y.

Abstract: The novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) quickly spread from Wuhan, China to many countries. This study aimed at examining the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria using Geographic Information System technique and showing how the results derived can be used as decision-making tools for implementation of pandemic surveillance and control measures, thus contributing to its prevention, both now and for the future. Collected data were converted into Geographic Information System (GIS) format for processing and geospatial analyses using ArcGIS 10.0 software. A GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation was also developed. Risk factors or criteria for COVID-19 spread, and their relative importance, were identified using expert-based knowledge. The criteria were each converted into map layers and combined based on a weighted linear combination to obtain COVID-19 pandemic risk map. The results show upward trends in the transmission, prevalence and mortality rate due to COVID-19 in Nigeria. During the period of 29 February, 2019 through 14 September, 2020, it has infected 56,388 people, resulting in 1,083 deaths. In terms of spread by states, Lagos remains the epicenter of the pandemic followed by Abuja, Oyo, Edo, Kano, Delta, Ogun, Rivers and Borno. The risk map show that generally Nigeria is at a high risk to the pandemic. Since COVID-19 is highly contagious and still spreading, there is need for proactive measures that will enhance public health mediations, good hygienic conditions, social distancing, and movement limitations to control the pandemic.

Key words: COVID-19, Geographic Information System, Multi-Criteria Analysis, Pandemic